A foundation of strong market fundamentals is fueling confidence in the 2020 market for new construction, as well as residential remodeling. Among the key statistics and forecasts released in recent weeks by government agencies, research firms and industry-related trade associations were the following:
HOUSING STARTS & NEW-HOME SALES
Market conditions for single-family housing starts “remain positive” – the result of low interest rates, a solid job market and a lack of resale inventory, the National Association of Home Builders said last month. The Washington, DC-based NAHB added that a recent sharp rise in builder confidence “points to additional gains” as 2020 unfolds (see related graph, right). “Builders are continuing to see the housing rebound that began [last] spring,” said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde. “Since the rebound in housing took hold, single-family starts have posted steady improvement,” added Robert Dietz, NAHB chief economist. Total housing starts were pegged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.37 million units, according to the latest figures. Single-family starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 938,000 units, while the multifamily sector increased to a 427,000 pace. New-home sales were also reported to be on “an upward path, topping 700,000 units for the fourth consecutive month in November 2019.” New-home sales were running 10% higher than in 2018 as of November, the NAHB observed.
EXISTING-HOME SALES
Despite “choppy” sales of existing homes, the U.S. economy “is otherwise performing very well” and a recent decline in resales “is not a cause for worry,” the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors said last month. Existing-home sales – pacing at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million as 2019 came to a close – were nevertheless up 2.7% from their 5.21-million pace at the same time a year earlier, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Washington, DC-based NAR (see related story below). Existing-home price increases marked 93 consecutive months of year-over-year gains, the NAR said. “New home construction seems to be coming to the market, but we’re still not seeing the amount of construction needed to solve the housing shortage,” Yun said.
APPLIANCE SHIPMENTS
Domestic shipments of major home appliances, adhering to a year-long pattern, declined again in November of 2019 compared to the same month a year earlier, while year-to-date shipments continued to lag those of 2018, according to the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers. The Washington, DC-based AHAM reported last month that November 2019 appliance shipments totaled 5.77 million units, down 2.8% from the 5.94 million units shipped in November of 2018. Year-to-date shipments through November were down 5.1% from the same 11-month period a year earlier, AHAM said.
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